Campaign '96: Third Party Time?

For a long while before the appointed time has come, the [presidential] election becomes the important and all engrossing topic of discussion.

Factional ardor is redoubled and all the artificial passions the imagination can create in a happy and peaceful land are agitated and brought to light.

The President, moreover, is absorbed by the cares of self-defense.

He no longer governs for the interest of the state but for that of his re-election.

He does homage to the majority and instead of checking its passions, as his duty commands, he frequently courts its worst caprices.

As the election draws near, the activity of intrigue and the agitation of the populace increase.

The citizens are divided into hostile camps, each of which assumes the name of its favorite candidate.

The whole nation glows with feverish excitement.

The election is the daily theme of the press, the subject of conversation, the end of every thought and action, the sole interest of the present.

It is true that as soon as the choice is determined, this ardor is dispelled, calm returns and the river, which had nearly broken its banks, sinks to its usual level;

but who can refrain from astonishment that such a storm should have arisen?

                                                                -Alexis de Tocqueville, 1835

Campaign '96: Third-Party Time? is based on a case study for PAL 201, the course on Elective and Advocacy Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of Politics. The case was developed by the Kennedy School's Case Program. The case asks you to become the chief political strategist for a prospective third-party or independent Presidential candidate.

Table of Contents

Introduction

On March 28, 1996, Bob Dole won a tough race for the Republican presidential nomination with primary victories in California and two other western states. That day, the names of both the big party candidates on the November 1996 ballot were decided, with incumbent Bill Clinton having long been the only choice on the Democratic side.

The primary season ended only seven weeks after it began and the outcomes of the Democrat and Republican conventions were already known. But voters showed little enthusiasm over a Dole-Clinton race. Polls showed that a majority of voters in both parties wanted more choices in selecting a president. In response to the voters' dissatisfaction, third party rumblings from the right, the left and the center grew particularly loud in late March 1996 ... similar to the speculation about retired general Colin Powell's potential candidacy that had swept the country in the early Fall of 1995.

Rumors swirled that Republican opponent Pat Buchanan was set to leave the GOP, taking his followers with him. Ross Perot was back on the airwaves touting the Reform Party. Commentators wondered if the party he had helped create could ever do better than the double-digit achievements of Perot's independent 1992 campaign. Too, consumer advocate Ralph Nader had accepted the invitation of the California Green Party and allowed it to put him on that state's presidential primary ballot. Nader got enough attention to frighten Democratic strategists who said a Clinton sweep in California was essential to national victory. Finally, Lowell Weicker, the former independent governor of Connecticut, was wondering if the time had come to shoot for his own presidential ambitions.

Although Buchanan, Weicker, Nader and Perot were watched closely by the national media, more than a dozen lesser-known, but no less determined, presidential hopefuls had been on the road rallying voters for months. Grassroots organizers for parties ranging from the Libertarians to the Socialist Equality Party were hard at work throughout the country, going door-to-door and hoping to turn local interest into national attention. Each small third party had to consider the kind of strategy to use -- maybe to actually win the race or, more likely, to at least have some influence on the issues and affect the outcome of the election.

The Presidency

Independent and third party efforts have traditionally focused on the presidency. The presidency is the only office that offers an opportunity for a new party to get attention and organize nationally. But Perot's failed 1992 presidential attempt, the disappointing efforts of his new Reform Party and the experience of other small parties show that presidential candidates from outside the mainstream face enormous barriers. Not only must they consider the ideological position of their candidates and identify electoral opportunities state-by-state, but unlike the Republicans and Democrats, they must also overcome huge financial and legal barriers. [For more resources, see the Directory of US Political Parties, Presidential Election.com, Presidency 2020 and the US Politics Guide.]

The Assignment

How would I run a third-party or independent presidential campaign?

What sorts of political messages could I use to keep a third-party or independent campaign going?

Is it even possible for a third-party or independent candidate to win?

If I don't win, is there another reason that's good enough to make it worthwhile to try?

These are the sorts of questions you should think about in the following assignment.

The date is March 31, 1996. You are the chief political strategist for a potential third party campaign. Your tasks are as follows.

1. Identify the candidate or party for whom you will be working.

2. Come up with a campaign strategy that will get the most votes and/or influence for your candidate or party.

3. Describe the main ideas of your campaign in a master strategy memo.

Getting Started

You are working on behalf of one of the following.

a real or fictional person who is currently the presidential nominee of a real third party OR

the presidential nominee of a fictional third party (a brand new party with a compelling message that none of the current parties are interested in tackling) OR

a real person you believe has the potential to win as an independent presidential candidate

Think about your options ... then (1) identify your candidate and (2) develop an idea of the goals of your campaign as quickly as possible. Once you've done that, use the information below to develop your campaign's strategy.

In the process of looking at the information, you may decide you need to change your initial ideas about your campaign. Don't be discouraged: You'll find the information makes more sense if you first think through an initial strategy -- even if you have to change it later -- than if you look without first thinking about your campaign goals.

Possible Campaign Scenarios

I encourage you to identify a party and/or candidate and to develop campaign goals on your own. However, you may decide to choose one of the scenarios below or at least use one as a starting point.

1. You plan to throw the election into the House of Representatives.

The Setting

In this scenario, polls give Clinton a small but solid lead. Dole was chosen at the Republican national convention by a greatly weakened party. The Republicans had a series of vicious primary election battles and  an ugly fight over the party's platform during the convention. Your candidate -- an independent with strong Republican connections -- supports an issue or set of issues that he/she feels has been ignored by the Republican candidate and party. Too, your market research shows your issue/issues are very important to a key segment of voters ... voters who appear likely to vote for Clinton in a two-way race.

Goals

You believe you can run an independent campaign that will succeed in denying Democrat Clinton a simple majority of the electoral vote. Such a result would force the House of Representatives, under Republican control, to determine the outcome of the election. Your candidate holds the key to Republican victory and would support the Republican candidate only if he addressed the issues that started your campaign.

Considerations

What large state or group of smaller states would your candidate need to win to gain the most electoral votes? (Without your candidate those states will most likely go to Clinton.)

What issue or issues would your candidate support to guarantee success in the targeted state or states?

2. Your campaign wants to capture the so-called "radical middle" vote, independent voters roused by Ross Perot in 1992.

The Setting

Yours is a centrist candidate, who appeals to what has been called the Radical Middle of the voting public.

Goals

Voters are unhappy with the major party candidates and are looking for third party alternatives. You believe your candidate has the opportunity not only to outdo the 1992 Perot Campaign's double-digit percentage of popular votes, but also has the ability to succeed where Perot '92 failed by getting enough electoral votes to win the election.

Considerations

What is the Radical Middle and what states might you reasonably hope to win in your appeal to this group of voters?

What issues would your candidate support to separate him/her from the major party candidates and capture the centrist voters?

3. Your new party targets the presidential campaign as a way to get national attention and to set the stage for Congressional wins in future elections.

The Setting

You are approached by a relatively unknown, but fast growing, independent minority party (real or imagined) with stable financial support. The party believes its message could have a strong appeal among voters nationwide if only it could get national attention. Too, leaders of the party want to find a way to establish a third party in Congress. They see this as the only way to make sure the party's platform influences the legislative agenda.

Goals

Your task is to convince party organizers that a presidential campaign is precisely what they need to expand their organization and lay the foundation for their party in Congress. You devise a strategy that gives the party national attention and promises a respectable number of popular votes.

Considerations

Why was your party founded? How can you turn the party's principles into specific issues that the party's candidate will use in the campaign to raise awareness about the party's existence?

What kind of candidate should your party look for?

On which geographical areas will your campaign focus?

The Memo

The end result of your work will be a memo -- a summary of your candidate's campaign -- which clearly explains what your candidate and party consider to be success and addresses the three major components of campaign strategy.

candidate positioning (your message)

voter segmentation (your market)

the means you employ to implement your campaign (the mechanics)

Your memo should address all of the following if only briefly.

1. Basics

       a. Briefly profile the candidate or party for whom you are working.

       b. Describe the goals of your campaign.

2. Message

       a. Describe your candidate's positions on the important issues you identified.

       b. How do your candidate's choice of issues and positions on the issues relate to those of other candidates?

       c. What led you to believe that the "issue space" you have created for your candidate isn't already taken?

3. Market

       a. Identify the segments of the population most likely to respond to the issues of importance to your candidate.

       b. Determine the states likely to have an effect on the outcome of your candidate's campaign.

       c. Pinpoint those states that will form the core of your campaign - your targeted states.

4. Mechanics

       a. Estimate the impact of your campaign ... how much of the popular vote and how many electoral votes do you think you can you win?

       b. Describe your strategy for getting your candidate and/or party on the ballot in your targeted states.

       c. Identify potential allies (e.g., officeholders, groups, celebrities, etc) you will recruit to support your campaign.

       d. Describe your methods of making your candidate known in your targeted states.

       e. Describe how you intend to raise funds for your campaign.

To see an example of such a memo, go to the memo James Rowe wrote to Harry Truman in 1948 laying out a master strategy that guided Truman to victory. (Click here to go to the Rowe Memo now.)

Finding the Information You Need

Below is a list of resources devoted to Presidential campaigns and third party/independent politics. Some resources give a broad historical background, some give a snapshot of Campaign '96.

The four major areas follow the outline of the memo described above: Basics, Message, Market and Mechanics. Those areas have the following subcategories.

Each subcategory contains information drawn from several different types of sources. Many of the pages of information also have links within them to other, related pages. If you're feeling a bit overwhelmed, take a deep breath! Review what it is you need to do and look through the material ... it will begin to make sense.

Familiarize yourself with the format and tone of the Rowe Memo mentioned above.

1947 Rowe Memo

Political strategy is not only an acceptable practice, but a necessary part of a successful and vibrant democracy. The Rowe Memo is the memo that New Deal lawyer James H. Rowe, Jr. wrote for Truman about how to win the 1948 presidential election. History often remembers it as the “Clifford memo” because for years White House aide Clark Clifford took credit for it, which irritated Rowe’s family no end.

The Rowe Memo (1)

The Rowe Memo (2)

Mystery over Memo

Oral History Interview with James H. Rowe

1948 Presidential Election

1948 Presidential Election

Harry Truman and the 1948 Election

The 1948 Election Campaign Collection

Harry Truman’s Comeback Campaign

GOVT 2301 ACTIVITY 4 RUBRIC

In Activity #4 you had to map out a campaign strategy for an independent or third party presidential candidate and write a memo to your candidate that outlined that strategy. Your memo had to include certain components. The following rubric explains the points you received based on the memo you sent.

___     The basics (2 points max)

___     The message (2 points max)

___     The market (2 points max)

___     The mechanics (2 points max)

___     Correct spelling and grammar (2 point max)

___     Submitted by deadline OR ___ days late (Subtract 1 point per day late.)