GEOG 1303 Unit 8
Up World Growth Rates Doubling Time Chart

 

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Unit 8: Putting It All Together

 

 

A.  Read the following selections from the Margin Notes by clicking on each link.

 

There are no Margin Notes selections to read for this unit.

 

 

B.  Watch these presentations. When you click on one of the links below, a new screen will pop up. Use the scrollbar on the side of the new screen to navigate. You need Adobe Reader to view PDF files.

 

There are no presentations to watch for this unit.

 

 

C.  (Optional) Read the following chapters from the textbook.

There are no chapters to read for this unit.

 

D.  The following Optional Links will help you do better in your course but they are not required.

GEOG 1303 Unit 8 Concept List

GEOG 1303 Project Rubric (Look at the rubric before starting your project.)

GEOG 1303 Unit 8 Review

GEOG 1303 Capstone Activity Instructions (DOC)

How to Study for Tests (PDF)

 

 

E.  Project: World in the Balance (20 points)To Do Note

Since 1800, the human population has grown from one billion to seven billion people.

Over the next thirty years, experts predict that number will rise to nine billion. Look at a quick presentation on population growth by clicking on the following link.

World Population Growth

Although population is only one of the five themes we study in human geography, by now you should be able to see the impact population characteristics can have on all other aspects of humanity. For your project, you're going to investigate population growth, specifically how long it takes the populations of different countries to double.

Let's begin by reviewing a couple of basic concepts with which you should be familiar.

A country’s growth rate is the increase in its population during a period of time

expressed as a percentage of the population at the start of that time.

For example, if a town had 75 people at the beginning of 2010 and 100 people at the beginning of 2011, what would its growth rate be for the year?

First … how many new people does the town have?

100 at start of 2011 75 at start of 2010 = 25 new people (increase in population)

Look again at the definition of growth rate:

the increase in a population during a period of time

expressed as a percentage of the population at the start of that time

So 25 (the increase in population) is what percent of 75 (the starting population)?

25 (increase in pop) 75 (starting pop) = 0.33

0.33 X 100 = 33%

The growth rate for the year is 33%.

 

A country's growth rate can have a profound effect on the country as a whole. Sometimes, though, it's hard to visualize what a specific growth rate means. You feel like 50% is a high growth rate but can you really get a feel for how high from the number alone? You feel like 1% is a low growth rate but can you really get a feel for how low from the number alone?

We can use a country's growth rate to determine the country's doubling time … a figure that gives us a better feel for how quickly the country's population is growing.

A country's doubling time is the number of years it takes for the country’s population

to increase by 100% (or double) at its current rate of natural increase.

Does a 2% annual growth rate sound low? To most people it does. Does a doubling time of 35 years (the country's population doubles every 35 years) sound high? Definitely! Yet those two figures describe the same thing … a country with a low-sounding 2% growth rate will double its population every 35 years.

 

You are going to begin your project by using the growth rates of 8 countries to calculate the doubling time of each. (Later, you'll look at what those numbers mean.)

How do we calculate doubling time?

To simplify things a little, I have standardized the figures with which you’ll be working.

  1. Rather than use the huge numbers that are the starting populations for the world's countries, I have set the starting population for every country at 50 individuals. (The population size does not affect the doubling time.)

  2. Rather than calculate the annual population year after year, you will use 10-year compounded growth rates. (The 10-year growth rate is based on annual growth rates from 2003 from the US Bureau of Census International Database.)

  3. Although in reality a country's growth rate changes (increasing or decreasing) from year to year, we will assume each country's growth rate will be constant (the same figure every year during the 10-year period).

[Trust me! This will all make sense in a minute!]

 

Calculating Doubling Time: An Example

You are going to calculate the doubling times for 8 countries by yourself. In order to do that, there is a simple process you need to learn. The following chart and the instructions below the chart use Venezuela as an example of how to use a country's population growth rate to calculate the country's doubling time. Study the chart and instructions until you understand how the process works. (This may seem a little overwhelming at first but if you take your time and work out the process, you'll see it's really quite simple.)

BLANK DOUBLING TIME CHART

 VENEZUELA

blank chart

Starting Population

10-year Growth Rate

Number of New Individuals

New Population Size

Starting point

50

 

 

 

After 10 years

 

 

 

 

After 20 years

 

 

 

 

After 30 years

 

 

 

 

After 40 years

 

 

 

 

After 50 years

 

 

 

 

After 60 years

 

 

 

 

INSTRUCTIONS

Above is a blank chart for Venezuela like the chart you will start with for each of your 8 countries. Below is a completed chart for Venezuela. Compare the blank chart and the completed chart as you read these instructions to help you understand how the process works. I used each step in these instructions, to fill out the completed chart below.

  1. Click on the World Growth Rates link at the top of this page. Look through the lists until you find the 10-year growth rate for Venezuela. Write that growth rate -- 0.158 -- on each row in the 10-year Growth Rate column.

  2. Multiply the Starting Population of 50 by Venezuela's growth rate. This will give you the number of new individuals added to the population in the 1st 10-year period. (50 X 0.158 = 7.9. Always round fractions up, since partial individuals do not exist in the real world.)

  3. Put the number of new individuals (8) in the Number of New Individuals column.

  4. Add the Starting Population (50) to the Number of New Individuals (8) to calculate the New Population Size (58) for the 1st row. We've now completed the 1st row. Each remaining row will simply repeat the same pattern. If you understand things to this point, keep going. If not, read through these first steps again.

  5. The New Population Size (58) at the end of the 1st row is also the Starting Population value for the next row. (Below you can see the 58 at the end of the 1st row is also at the beginning of the 2nd row.)

  6. On row 2, multiply the Starting Population (58) by the growth rate (0.158) to find the Number of New Individuals (10).

  7. As on the 1st row, add the Starting Population (58) to the Number of New Individuals (10) to calculate the New Population Size (68) at the end of the 2nd row.

  8. The New Population Size (68) at the end of the 2nd row is also the Starting Population value for the beginning of the 3rd row. (Below you can see the 68 at the end of the 2nd row is also at the beginning of the 3rd row.)

  9. Repeat the process for as many rows (10-year periods) as necessary until the country's population has doubled … is at least 100.

  10. NOTE: Remember that the New Population Size is always also the Starting Population for the next 10-year period. This is important in determining doubling time. Look at Venezuela's completed chart below. The first figure greater than 100 is the 107 at the end of the 5th row. But the doubling time is NOT 40 years. Since 107 is also the Starting Population for the 6th row, the chart reads, "After 50 years, 107." (After 40 years, the population is just 92.) That means the doubling time for Venezuela with a 0.158 growth rate is 50 years … whatever Venezuela's population is, at this growth rate, its population will double every 50 years.

COMPLETED DOUBLING TIME CHART

 VENEZUELA

completed chart

Starting Population

10-year Growth Rate

Number of New Individuals

New Population Size

Starting point

50

0.158

8

(50 x 0.158)

58

(50 + 8)

After 10 years

58

0.158

10

(58 x 0.158)

68

(58 + 10)

After 20 years

68

0.158

11

(68 x 0.158)

79

(68 + 11)

After 30 years

79

0.158

13

(79 x 0.158)

92

(79 + 13)

After 40 years

92

0.158

15

(92 x 0.158)

107

(92 + 15)

After 50 years

107

0.158

 

 

 

After 60 years

 

0.158

 

 

 

 

Calculating Doubling Time for 8 Countries

Now it's your turn. Make certain you understand the example above. If you become confused while calculating the doubling times for your countries, go back to the example to remind yourself how the process works.

The first part of your project is to calculate the doubling time for each of the following 8 countries.

Australia

Chad

China

India

Mayotte

Saudi Arabia

Thailand

United States

Use the World Growth Rates link at the top of this page to find the 10-year growth rate for each of your countries. You may also use the Doubling Time Chart link at the top of this page for a blank chart that you can print or copy-and-paste into a Word document. (You will need one chart for each country.) If you prefer, you can use scratch paper instead of a chart. The chart's only purpose is to help you remember the steps in calculating a country's doubling time. If you don't need it, that's fine.

For each of the 8 countries, use that country's 10-year growth rate, an initial population of 50 and the process used in the example above to calculate that country's doubling time. In the example above, we found that "the doubling time for Venezuela is 50 years." You should be able to make a similar (and accurate) statement for each of your 8 countries as shown below.

The doubling time for Australia is ___ years.

The doubling time for Chad is ___ years.

The doubling time for China is ___ years.

The doubling time for India is ___ years.

The doubling time for Mayotte is ___ years.

The doubling time for Saudi Arabia is ___ years.

The doubling time for Thailand is ___ years.

The doubling time for the United States is ___ years.

 

Reflection

After you have calculated the doubling time for all of your countries, think about your results and the differences between the 8 countries. How would increasing or decreasing the growth rate affect how quickly the population size increases or decreases? What factors do you think affect growth rates, causing a country's growth rate to increase or decrease?

Based on the figures given in the World Growth Rates lists, Greenland & South Africa have the lowest 10-year compounded growth rate (0.001) and it would take 6,890 years for their populations to double. As you can see, that's a slow growth rate! However, Montserrat's population, with the highest growth rate (0.553), will double every 20 years. No matter how small a population that country started with, at that rate it would be facing massive population numbers in a relatively short period of time.

If you were the leader of a low-growth-rate country such as Greenland, what concerns would you have about your country's growth rate? What do you think are the possible environmental, cultural, political and economic impacts on people in low-growth-rate populations? Low growth rates may have both positive and negative effects.

If you were the leader of a high-growth-rate country such as Montserrat, what concerns would you have about your country's growth rate? What do you think are the possible environmental, cultural, political and economic impacts on people in high-growth-rate populations? High growth rates may have both positive and negative effects.

Remember what I wrote at the beginning of this project … Although population is only one of the five themes we study in human geography, by now you should realize the impact population characteristics can have on a country's physical environment, culture, politics and economy … and, indeed, on the entire world population. It is a critical factor in every aspect of human existence.

Before you begin your summary below, I suggest you review the assigned material from previous units and take the time to create a complete picture in your mind of the degree to which population characteristics can affect everything else. Imagine living in a country with a growth rate as low as Greenland's. How would your day-to-day life be different -- growing up, now and in the future? What if you lived in a country with a growth rate as high as Montserrat's. How would your day-to-day life be different -- growing up, now and in the future? If you have a good picture in your mind of both situations before you begin writing your summary, you'll find it much easier to complete.

 

When you have finished your project, write a project summary that includes the 4 components below. Your analysis should be thorough, specific, include relevant concepts from the course material and be free of spelling and grammar errors.

  1. The doubling time statements for your 8 countries (You should simply list these, as I did above, without discussion.)

  2. An in-depth discussion about low-growth-rate countries that includes all of the following

    1. Demographic characteristics of a low-growth-rate population

    2. Positive / negative impacts of a low growth rate on a country's physical environment

    3. Positive / negative impacts of a low growth rate on a country's culture

    4. Positive / negative impacts of a low growth rate on a country's politics

    5. Positive / negative impacts of a low growth rate on a country's economy

  3. An in-depth discussion about high-growth-rate countries that includes all of the following

    1. Demographic characteristics of a high-growth-rate population

    2. Positive / negative impacts of a high growth rate on a country's physical environment

    3. Positive / negative impacts of a high growth rate on a country's culture

    4. Positive / negative impacts of a high growth rate on a country's politics

    5. Positive / negative impacts of a high growth rate on a country's economy

  4. Specific and detailed connections to course content

 

Project Submission Instructions

By the deadline shown in the Course Schedule on the main page of the syllabus:

  • Send your project summary containing the 4 components requested in the body of a new email to dramyglenn@earthlink.net.

  • Put only your name and Project at the beginning of your email.

  • Be careful to use the correct subject line.

  • Late projects lose one point per day late, including weekends and holidays.

A NOTE OF CAUTION: This is a 20-point comprehensive assignment ... the detail and thoroughness of your response should reflect that additional weight.

If you have not already done so (or even if you have!) proofread your work for spelling and grammar errors and make corrections where necessary.

 


 

 

 

Course EvaluationTo Do Note

While the benefit you gain from your courses is ultimately up to you, all faculty members take seriously the responsibility for facilitating student learning. Faculty members desire students’ honest opinions to help improve instruction and to help verify the positive aspects of instruction. Creating online courses is extremely labor-intensive and time-consuming and all online faculty members value thoughtful feedback.

I’ve modified a short face-to-face student evaluation for online student use and strongly encourage you to participate. The answers from each completed evaluation are electronically submitted to a results file that is never publically accessible. Because no login is required to complete the evaluation, it is impossible to identify who completed a specific evaluation. The only information associated with an individual evaluation (as a method of weeding out bogus evaluations) is the date and time it was submitted.

To begin, go to the Student Course Evaluation page and follow the directions. Take care to choose the correct course and semester. Too, remember that your course is an online course and should be compared to other online courses you've taken, not to face-to-face courses. If the course you are evaluating is your first online course, compare it to your realistic expectations of an online course.

The evaluation will be available at the link above two weeks prior to your final exam and will remain available for one week following your final.  The evaluation only takes about 10 minutes to complete but the feedback you provide will be invaluable … I really do use student feedback to help improve my courses!

 


 

 

 

Final Exam (20 points)To Do Note

The final exam has 40 multiple-choice questions. Each question is worth one-half point. There is a comprehensive review for the final on the Final Exam Review page, linked off of the main page of the syllabus.

The final exam is an online exam.  You must read the instructions for the final exam before taking it. The instructions are on the main page of your syllabus just below the Course Schedule.

Please note that students taking the final exam online must complete the exam by the deadline shown in the Course Schedule on the main page of the syllabus. The deadline gives you the maximum possible amount of time to take the exam but it allows NO margin of error since grades are due. If you miss that deadline, regardless of the reason, you will not be able to take a make-up exam. I strongly encourage you to take it early rather than risking damage to your grade by waiting until the last minute.

 


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Copyright 1996 Amy S Glenn    
Last updated:   03/01/2017   0130

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